报告题目：The Threshold Value of the Number of Hospital Beds and Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

报告人：万辉 教授 南京师范大学

邀请人：白振国

报告时间：2023年11月10日（星期五）15：00

报告地点：行政辅楼235会议室

报告人简介：万辉，南京师范大学数学科学学院教授、博士生导师，中国生物数学会理事，美国《数学评论》(Mathematical Reviews)评论员；主要研究方向包括生物与生态数学模型研究、传染病动力学、微分方程与动力系统及其应用等；2009年博士毕业于南京师范大学，导师崔景安教授；2009年至2010年，在加拿大约克大学从事博士后研究工作，导师朱怀平教授；2017年访问美国普渡大学，合作导师冯芝兰教授；在《Journal of Theoretical Biology》、《Bulletin of Mathematical Biology》、《Mathematical Biosciences》、《Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems》等国际国内重要刊物上发表论文多篇；主持在研或完成科研项目5项，其中国家自然科学基金天元基金项目1项，国家自然科学基金青年基金项目1项，国家自然科学基金面上项目1项。

报告摘要：In this work, I will introduce a SIHR infectious disease mode for which the hospitalized rate is expressed as a nonlinear function related to the number of empty beds to describe the effect of the number of hospital beds on the spread of infectious diseases. We proved that the model undergoes backward bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension 2 by the center manifold and normal form methods. Our results show that there is a threshold for the number of hospital beds in a region. If the number of beds is lower than this threshold, the backward bifurcation will occur, which means that controlling the basic reproduction number to a level less than 1 is not sufficient to ensure that the disease does not break out. Increasing the number of hospital beds can help people ensure the ultimate extinction of the disease when the basic reproduction number is less than 1. It can also effectively reduce the number of infections and help control the spread of the disease. The estimation method of thresholds can also help people rationally allocate the number of hospital beds in a region.