报告题目： Modelling and assessing the effects of medical resources on transmission of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

报 告 人：赵洪涌 教授 南京航空航天大学

照    片：

邀 请 人：常永奎

报告时间：2020年10月19日（周一） 14：30-15：30

腾讯会议ID： 380 9958 9768

报告人简介：赵洪涌, 四川大学理学博士，南京大学博士后。现为南京航空航天大学教授，博士生导师,九三学社社员。长期从事生物系统动力学、传染病动力学分析与控制、时滞微分方程动力学等研究。江苏省高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师和中青年学术带头人. 2014年至2019年，连续六年入选爱思唯尔中国高被引学者榜单。获省自然科学优秀论文二等奖一项、江苏省高校科技成果二等奖一项、获南京航空航天大学“群星”创新奖一项。2016年入选南京航空航天大学年度人物。 国家科技部重大项目和江苏省高校重大项目会评专家，国家自然科学基金和江苏省自然科学基金通讯评议专家；教育部学位与研究生教育发展中心学位论文和江苏省优秀学位论文特邀评议专家；在研国家自然科学基金一项. 现已发表学术论文一百余篇，被SCI刊物引用二千余次。现为中国生物数学学会常务理事，江苏省生物数学学会副理事长，TCCT随机系统控制委员会委员。

报告摘要： The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019), a newly emerging disease in China, posed a public health emergency of China. Wuhan is the most serious affected city. From Jan. 23rd, 2020, gradually increasing medical resources (such as health workforce, protective clothing, essential medicines) were sent to Wuhan from other provinces, and the government has established the hospitals to quarantine and treat infected individuals. Under the condition of sufficient medical resources in Wuhan, late-stage of epidemic showed a downward trend. Assessing the effectiveness of medical resources is of great significance for the future response to similar disease. Based on the transmission mechanisms of COVID-19 and epidemic characteristics of Wuhan, by using time-dependent rates for some parameters, we establish a dynamical model to reflect the changes of medical resources on transmission of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Our model is applied to simulate the reported data on cumulative and new confirmed cases in Wuhan from Jan. 23rd to Mar. 6th, 2020. Our results show that delayed opening the ‘Fire God Hill’ hospital will greatly increase the magnitude of the outbreak. This shows that the government’s timely establishment of hospitals and effective quarantine via quick detection prevent a larger outbreak.